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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a international match.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, yes, you know the rest.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, their power, game management, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, successful opponents have needed to score in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. A yellow card? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.