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When Vladimir Putin visited the South Asian nation in the previous decade, the global landscape looked entirely distinct. The brief visit, limited by the pandemic, focused on discussions on strategic and defense cooperation between the two nations.

Months later, the large-scale military offensive of Ukraine would turn the Russian leader into a global pariah, significantly restricting his diplomatic travel.

Additionally, that era came before a significant shift in US-India relations, marked by contentious rhetoric and the imposition of substantial import duties.

"In this context, the importance of Putin's journey to meet Modi is profound, serving as a signal of enduring ties and a defiance of outside coercion," analysts note.

A Pivotal Moment for Both Nations

The summit takes place at a delicate moment. The Kremlin leader comes after rejecting latest peace proposals for Ukraine, confident due to claimed gains by Russian forces.

"For Russia, the primary importance of this engagement is its very occurrence," stated a senior researcher based in Moscow. "It suggests a movement toward something resembling routine global diplomacy."

For India, the stakes are particularly elevated. The country navigates a difficult international environment, characterized by a semi-isolationist United States, a diminished Russia, and an assertive China.

This delicate balance was highlighted just before the visit, when senior Western diplomats released a joint opinion piece criticizing Russia's peace efforts. This prompted a firm rebuke from Indian officials, who called it an unacceptable interference.

'China Remains the Greatest Threat'

The India-Russia bond dates back to the Cold War era and remains deeply entrenched, with Moscow long being Delhi's top defense supplier. This relationship was generally accepted by the West before a recent shift.

For years, Western nations overlooked India's large-scale buying of discounted Russian oil. However, in the wake of stalled diplomacy, pressure increased, leading to economic penalties and a major chill in transatlantic relations with Delhi.

"In response, India has returned to its traditional posture of 'hedging'," explained a foreign policy expert. "This demonstrates to the US that it has other choices and is observing how the situation unfolds."

Apart from international politics, India's fundamental concern with Russia is geography. "Beijing remains the primary security challenge to India, and for decades, India has depended on Russia as a continental balancer against China," the analyst stated.

The deepening Moscow-Beijing axis has caused concern in Delhi, leading to efforts to avoid an excessively close bond between its adversary and its longtime partner.

This concern has also spurred India's drive to diversify its defense procurement, decreasing its reliance on Russian equipment from a dominant share to under 40% in recent years.

"Delhi will try to find a middle ground: buy sufficient Russian weaponry to maintain the alliance, but not become overly reliant that a supply disruption would leave it vulnerable," the analyst remarked.

Energy and Economic Ties

Increased trade relations is expected to be a key agenda item. The Russian leader has publicly stressed plans to elevate cooperation with India to a "higher plane", in spite of Western sanctions.

The matter of crude oil imports remains central. Although the Indian government has stated to keep buying Russian oil, new sanctions have slowed activity from the private sector. Simultaneously, India has agreed to increase imports of US energy.

A Kremlin spokesperson acknowledged "obstacles" in economic cooperation but said it would proceed without major disruption. The official downplayed the effect of sanctions, stating they would cause only "minor" and "temporary" drops and that Russia possesses the "technology" to circumvent them.

Limited Leverage on Ukraine

As talks proceed, the issue of Ukraine is likely to be addressed primarily through India's consistent appeal for dialogue and peace.

"While the Indian leader can speak to all parties, India lacks the necessary leverage to alter the course of the war," the analyst said. "Beyond encouraging talks, its ability to effect change is limited."

In the end, notwithstanding the visible friendship between the two leaders, the relationship is at its core one of "pure realpolitik," driven by national interest in a volatile world.